[British Museum, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons]
Reading the chapter in A Game of Thrones in which Arya "overhears" two men appearing to us to be Varys and Illyrio Mopatis, we get an insight into their long game -- their secret plans.
Responding to a comment by "Varys" about Ned Stark's possible demise, "Illyrio" says, "...we must have time. The princess is with child. The khal will not bestir himself until his son is born. You know how they are, these savages."
In this conversation, we also learn how awful a person Varys is, seeming to order 50 more children to turn into his "little birds" and have their tongues somehow removed.
Imagine the situation.... a rich and powerful Pentoshi magister arrives in Westeros to conference secretly with the spymaster of the Seven Kingdoms. When "Illyrio" talks about needing time, he notes that Khal Drogo will not be ready to invade Westeros until after Danaerys gives birth to his son. That puts the timing for the big events the two are secretly discussing about one year out, maybe two.
However, in A Dance with Dragons, Illyrio introduces Tyrion to Young Griff, whom Tyrion cleverly discerns to be a Targaryen princeling. We then hear the story of the Pisswater Prince, how Varys secreted the real prince Aegon away, placing him a few years later under the care of exiled Westerosi lord, Jon Connington. Aegon's retinue is preparing to reveal him to Danaerys, and then to unite him with his aunt in the conquest of Westeros.
The timing of these two conspiracies is extremely similar, yet seem irreconcilable. With Danaerys, the plan was for Khal Drogo to be the army that Viserys followed to the Iron Throne. With Young Griff/Aegon, the plan was apparently for the Golden Company to help him retake his rightful throne. The original plan was for Viserys to rule, so why would Varys and Illyrio assume that YG/Aegon could depose him?
The fandom/GRRM-lovefest assumes that the plan we read in ADWD must be what the author intended all along. The fandom has provided all sorts of explanations for the seeming contradictions: that Varys and Illyrio must have known Viserys would be a disaster, and that the Westerosi would welcome Aegon as a good ruler, raised the right way. Or that Viserys would create chaos in a war in Westeros, and Aegon would be able to take advantage to retake the Iron Throne.
None of these theories actually deal with the realism of human planning that GRRM seems able to write into characters (just think of Davos and his path, to name one good example). I don't think Varys and Illyrio would have the hubris to think that they could, with godlike foresight, predict that Aegon would win in any final confrontation over the Iron Throne.
To me, the best explanation of Young Griff/Aegon appearing in book 5 with no prior reference is that GRRM didn't invent him until after he broke out of the plan for a trilogy of books for ASOIAF. So now what we all need is some serious retconning ("retcon" = "retroactive continuity").
I think GRRM had another idea for "Young Griff" at first, and we'll probably see some of it play out as he ties up the loose ends of his original plot. I'll be writing some more blog posts, assuming my belief about the retcon that GRRM has in mind, to let you know how I think the book series will end.
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