Thursday, March 31, 2022

Estuaries of the Seven Kingdoms, Part 1: All About Estuaries

Want to solve one of the biggest mysteries of the book series, A Song of Ice and Fire?  Look at geography...

All About Estuaries


Also known as bays, sounds, or lagoons, estuaries are places where freshwater rivers empty into saltwater oceans. The mixing of saltwater and freshwater provides a habitat that can support plentiful plant and animal life. Industries that rely on estuaries include crabbing, oystering, and fishing. 

In Westeros, there are several bodies of water and places named for the abundant sea life these estuaries support:  the Bay of Crabs, the Bay of Seals, and Seal Rock, for example. Other great bays in Westeros centered on estuaries include Blackwater Bay, the Whispering Sound, the bay along Lannisport, and the bay containing the Shield Islands.  Great cities in Westeros are also frequently found near estuaries or their associated rivers:  King's Landing, White Harbor, Highgarden, Oldtown, and Starfall are all closely linked with estuaries or an associated river.  There are also a number of important ports, cities, and holdfasts found throughout Westeros along estuaries, including Maidenpool, Casterly Rock, Moat Cailin, and Heart's Home.  In Essos, important cities like Braavos and Astapor also sit on or near estuaries.  These cities show that the richest cities are nearest the estuaries.

The estuaries of Westeros are surrounded by different types of terrain.  King's Landing includes high hills that offer a strategic advantage in defending the city, but waterfrontage that Tyrion Lannister used to great effect in the Battle of the Blackwater.  Oldtown is a large city near the Whispering Sound, and is a very rich city in which the Citadel, the Hightower, and the Starry Sept (the first capital of the Faith of the Seven).  White Harbor, found on the the White Knife river and the Bite bay and is the only real city in the North and one of the richest city in Westeros.  The New Castle of the Manderly family is found on top of a hill overlooking the city, on which the Castle Stair road between the castle and Wolf's Den.   Starfall was the former capital of the Kings of the Torentine, located where the Torentine River empties into the Summer Sea and is surrounded by the western Red Mountains.    

[https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/ba/Marseille_Vieux_Port_Night.jpg]

[Johann Bernhard Fischer von Erlach, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons]

Throughout Westeros, the physical and ecological environments affect the cultures of the populations therein.  Northern populations are always aware of the winter cold, while in the lower Reach, even noble house members have never seen snow.  The House Redwyne in The Arbor island has a large navy and associated culture.  The desert in the Dorne has made wet locations such as the Water Gardens and the Greenblood well-loved places.

Cities near large estuaries take advantage of them for their incomes.  White Harbor relies on the marine trade and fishing grounds associated with the river and the bay.  King's Landing relies on supply chains from around around the world to provide the kings with the best foods, goods, and supplies from around Westeros and the broader world.


[Fajardoalacant, CC BY-SA 3.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0>, via Wikimedia Commons]


[Julian Herzog, CC BY 4.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons]

There are some places that have such particular physical environments that the skills people get from growing up in one of them become useful in places far from home.  For example, at the start Brienne's journey with Jaime and Cleos Frey on the Trident,

The Red Fork was wide and slow, a meandering river of loops and bends dotted with tiny wooded islets and frequently choked by sandbars and snags that lurked just below the water's surface.  Brienne seemed to have a keen eye for the dangers, though, and always seemed to find the channel.  When Jaime complimented her on her knowledge of the river, she looked at him suspiciously and said, "I do not know the river.  Tarth is an island.  I learned to manage oars and sail before I ever sat a horse."

Beyond boating being known to someone growing up on an island, there are other skills likely for many different types of terrains that can be useful elsehwere.  For example, in the Vale of Arryn, there is a "glacial river" through the Mountains of Moon that "flows into a narrow bay of the narrow sea"  In Dorne, the Torentine River flows through the Red Mountains into the Summer Sea.  While these estuaries are in different regions, and the cultures of residents of them are likely to be different, there are likely to be some behaviors that are similar.  For example, taking advantage of the fishing grounds in the estuaries would feed the people and improve the economy of each location.  

Those are just two key example of how the skills one gains growing up in a particular physical environment may be useful in others far from where one grew up.  As with Brienne's ability to navigate the Trident safely despite not having to  

Being able to travel through the mountains would be more likely for the people living in mountains.  Teaching children to swim and boat would be a way for parents to prevent children from drowning for locations near water, especially islands.  Growing up in Tarth made Brienne able to navigate the Trident.  Similarly, While the culture of the Vale and the Torentine would likely be quite different, someone from the Vale would probably not find the Torentine area totally unfamiliar.

The two photos below show two distinct mountain river valleys in the real world:  one in an otherwise dry and arid environment, the other in a lush, snow-capped range of mountains.  It's easy to imagine the Red Mountains in the photo above and the Mountains of the Moon in the scene below.

[Jebulon, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons]



[Ximonic (Simo Räsänen), CC BY-SA 4.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0>, via Wikimedia Commons]


Aside from Brienne, are there any other examples of characters from one such region who may have traveled to another and made use of skills learned at home?  Certainly.  We know House Manderly moved from the Mander River to the White Knife/Bite intersection -- the estuary.  A warm-weather house moved to a cold-weather region, and was able to set up well there.  These were not mountainous regions, but it illustrates the point of how the local terrain and water resources may be more important to how a family lives than the greater biological and ecological region.

Stay tuned for the next installment of Estuaries of the Seven Kingdoms for the answer to one of the biggest unanswered questions in A Song of Ice and Fire:  Ashara Dayne.


Tuesday, March 29, 2022

Who was where? The Unknowns of Robert's Rebellion

 Answering many of the unknowns of Robert's Rebellion will likely let us know the answers of many of the questions about everything in ASOIAF.  

Just a few considerations of potentially very important people and things during and after Robert's Rebellion.

  • The Redwyne Fleet -- It blockaded Storm's End throughout the war, but when Mace Tyrell lowered his banners to Ned Stark, where did the fleet go?  Robert Baratheon had to ask Stannis to build a whole new fleet before they were able to attack Dragonstone.  Did the Redwyne Fleet stay away? 
  • House Greyjoy -- We know that Balon rebelled between Robert's Rebellion and the War of Five Kings, but what were he and his brothers doing during while Ned Stark called his banners and marched south?  Wasn't the same opportunity available compared to when Robb Stark marched south?
  • Ashara Dayne -- We know she was at the Tourney at Harrenhal before the war and at Starfall at its end.  Where was she during the war?
  • Rhaegar Targaryen -- We know that his "kidnapping" Lyanna Stark is what kicked off the events leading to Robert's Rebellion.  His father only called him back to King's Landing after the Battle of the Bells.  Was Rhaegar totally unaware of the rebellion taking place, including his close friend Jon Connington being named Hand of the King?  
  • House Martell and Prince Doran -- we know that Dornish forces marched north after the Battle of the Bells, but what was Dorne doing up to that point?  Why did they wait so long to support Aerys?
  • Brynden Rivers -- The Three Eyed Crow was actively courting Bran after his fall in A Game of Thrones.  He was very involved in everything before going north and taking the black.  What was he doing during Robert's Rebellion?
  • Oberyn Martell -- we hear that at the end of Robert's Rebellion, he sought to raise Dorne for Viserys.  But where was he DURING the major part of the war?
  • (f)Aegon Targaryen -- The story of the Pisswater Prince is about what happened at the end of Robert's Rebellion.  We hear from Jon Connington that he was in Essos for a few years before Varys and Illyrio contacted him about the surviving son of JonCon's "Silver Prince."  Where was baby (f)Aegon between the war and JonCon taking him as a "son?" 
  • The "four loyal men" who helped Willem Darry smuggle Viserys and Daenerys off Dragonstone.  We only hear about Darry, but there were clearly others.  Who were they?  What did they know?  What were their fates after arriving in Braavos?

Wednesday, March 16, 2022

Prince Doran is smarter than the ASOIAF fandom



[User:Gokul Jadhav, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons]
 

With the death of Quentyn after his rejection by Danaerys in Mereen and the seemingly-instant affection for Aegon "Young Griff" Targaryen, who most people believe to be a fake, there are widepsread predictions by some of the most brilliant thinkers online that the Martells are going down.  The thought is that Doran is so attached to vengeance, just like the Sand Snakes, that he will hitch his horse (via marriage) to any Targaryen able to help his family get back into power.

There is every reason to expect this behavior of Doran.  We learn of a secret marriage pact negotiated between Oberyn Martell and Willem Dary for the marriage of Viserys and Arianne Martell.  We see how Tyrion arranged the betrothal of his niece Myrcella and Doran's son Trystane.  We read how Arianne is sent by Doran to check out young Aegon after Jon Connington sent a letter claiming that Elia's son is actually alive and asking for Dorne's help.

But there's more to the Martells than we have been able to see.

I want to back up and think fundamentally what is driving Dorne.  Is it emotion -- a thirst for vengeance above all?  Or does Doran act like a true statesman, seeking to forward the interests of Dorne, as the international relations theory called realism would suggest?  In the modern era, we learn how even "mad" dictators like the North Korean Kim family still act like rational actors when we look at them from the perspective of geopolitics.  Why wouldn't we apply the same lens to Dorne?

I want to grant that Doran is a fictional character, and that George R.R. Martin may not have been thinking as I suspect he did when he wrote the books.  Doran could be someone beset with the thirst for vengeance.  Still, I'm reminded of the question Martin asked about what Aragon's tax policy was.  In other words, he acknowledges that states' decisions are based more than the emotional impulses of their rulers, but generally on some rational basis.

So what would Dorne decide to do if it was rational?

Let's think about the history of Dorne.  The Martells' words "Unbowed, Unbent, Unbroken" mean that they were never conquered, they never surrendered, and they never were smashed in battle.  Aside from the history in Fire and Blood to the contrary, these words are mostly true.  And those exceptions are important in framing what Dorne wants now.  Aegon the Conqueror was never able to overcome it, and at Hellholt, his sister Rhaenes Targaryen and her dragon Meraxes fell from the sky after a scorpion bolt hit the beast in the eye.  Armies from the Reach met their demise in marching across the red sands of Dorne.  It was only after Prince Maron Martell was married to Danaerys Targaryen in 187 AC that a Dornish prince "bent the knee." 

Geopolitically speaking, for much of the post-Conquest history, Dorne has acted much as Russia did within European politics.  Relying on a large swath of land between other kingdoms and inhospitable weather, Dorne, like Russia, made itself the graveyard of conquerors.  In fact, there are so many similarities between Dorne and Russia in their response to invasion (i.e., abandonment of cities and fortresses, harrying attacks on invading armies) that it's possible GRRM partly based Dorne on Imperial Russia.  Russia's response to Napoleon's invasion in 1812 provides an amazing real-world parallel to these strategies employed by Dorne during Aegon's conquest.  [As an aside, the "Mossovy" in Essos is remarkably similar to the medieval antecedent of the Russian state:  Muscovy -- Moscow.]

[Vissarion, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons]

With a degree of security unique in Westeros, Dorne remains a kingdom apart.  The Martells are difficult to remove from power, and Dornish land is nigh-impossible for foreign forces to occupy.  Considering this position of geopolitical strength, what would cause any Dornish leader to sacrifice this security by drawing it into a war for the Iron Throne?

Most of the fandom and the (brilliant) online commentariat seem to think that Doran Martell is locked into the same approach to maintaining power that Prince Maron Martell employed about 120 years ago:  marrying a Targaryen.  However, that's not the only path forward for Dorne.

It's important to keep in mind that the secret wedding pact signed by Oberyn Martell with Willem Darry took place after Targaryen rule had ended in Westeros.  The secret wedding pact was far from a trump card in the game of thrones -- more of a way to diversify Dorne's investments.  Note that it was only after "our" Danaerys had conquered Meereen that Doran sent Quentyn to court her.  It was only after receiving a letter from Jon Connington that Doran sent Arianne to investigate Aegon/Young Griff in the Stormlands.

At the end of Robert's Rebellion, how likely was it that Viserys would be able to survive long enough to make a claim on the Iron Throne?  It seems like an extremely risky bet for Doran to put all his political chips on the marriage pact.  While later, Doran tries to use the pact to join his family with Danaerys, at the end of Robert's Rebellion, that wasn't known to him.

We do know from Tywin Lannister that at the end of Robert's Rebellion, Prince Oberyn Martell "tried to raise Dorne for Viserys."  Yet somehow, that uprising never happened... likely because Doran prevented it.  

So, if Doran is a master player of the game of thrones, what other bets might he have placed at the end of Robert's Rebellion?

I've got one theory... please stay tuned!

Tuesday, March 15, 2022

Prediction for The Winds of Winter: HUGE RETCON!


[British Museum, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons]

Reading the chapter in A Game of Thrones in which Arya "overhears" two men appearing to us to be Varys and Illyrio Mopatis, we get an insight into their long game -- their secret plans.

Responding to a comment by "Varys" about Ned Stark's possible demise, "Illyrio" says, "...we must have time.  The princess is with child.  The khal will not bestir himself until his son is born.  You know how they are, these savages."  

In this conversation, we also learn how awful a person Varys is, seeming to order 50 more children to turn into his "little birds" and have their tongues somehow removed.

Imagine the situation.... a rich and powerful Pentoshi magister arrives in Westeros to conference secretly with the spymaster of the Seven Kingdoms. When "Illyrio" talks about needing time, he notes that Khal Drogo will not be ready to invade Westeros until after Danaerys gives birth to his son.  That puts the timing for the big events the two are secretly discussing about one year out, maybe two.

However, in A Dance with Dragons, Illyrio introduces Tyrion to Young Griff, whom Tyrion cleverly discerns to be a Targaryen princeling.  We then hear the story of the Pisswater Prince, how Varys secreted the real prince Aegon away, placing him a few years later under the care of exiled Westerosi lord, Jon Connington.  Aegon's retinue is preparing to reveal him to Danaerys, and then to unite him with his aunt in the conquest of Westeros.

The timing of these two conspiracies is extremely similar, yet seem irreconcilable.  With Danaerys, the plan was for Khal Drogo to be the army that Viserys followed to the Iron Throne.  With Young Griff/Aegon, the plan was apparently for the Golden Company to help him retake his rightful throne.  The original plan was for Viserys to rule, so why would Varys and Illyrio assume that YG/Aegon could depose him?

The fandom/GRRM-lovefest assumes that the plan we read in ADWD must be what the author intended all along.  The fandom has provided all sorts of explanations for the seeming contradictions:  that Varys and Illyrio must have known Viserys would be a disaster, and that the Westerosi would welcome Aegon as a good ruler, raised the right way.  Or that Viserys would create chaos in a war in Westeros, and Aegon would be able to take advantage to retake the Iron Throne.

None of these theories actually deal with the realism of human planning that GRRM seems able to write into characters (just think of Davos and his path, to name one good example).  I don't think Varys and Illyrio would have the hubris to think that they could, with godlike foresight, predict that Aegon would win in any final confrontation over the Iron Throne.

To me, the best explanation of Young Griff/Aegon appearing in book 5 with no prior reference is that GRRM didn't invent him until after he broke out of the plan for a trilogy of books for ASOIAF.  So now what we all need is some serious retconning ("retcon" = "retroactive continuity").

[https://twitter.com/oxlanguages/status/906762930514911232]

I think GRRM had another idea for "Young Griff" at first, and we'll probably see some of it play out as he ties up the loose ends of his original plot.  I'll be writing some more blog posts, assuming my belief about the retcon that GRRM has in mind, to let you know how I think the book series will end.

Tuesday, March 8, 2022

How did Ned Stark know where Lyanna was?

 After the Sack of King's Landing, Eddard Stark led the forces of the alliance that brought Robert to power to Storm's End to lift the siege that was being maintained by the Tyrell forces.  When Ned's host arrived, Mace Tyrell dipped his banners immediately.  Shortly afterward, Ned led a group of six of his trusted northern bannermen (Howland Reed, Willam Dustin, Ethan Glover, Martin Cassel, Theo Wull, and Mark Ryswell) to an obscure tower nestled in the red mountains of Dorne -- the Tower of Joy.

The war began when Ned's brother Brandon heard that his sister Lyanna had been kidnapped by Rhaegar Targaryen.  Riding immediateloy to King's Landing, when Brandon and his companions entered the Red Keep and shouted to Rhaegar to come out and die, King Aerys II arrested him for plotting to murder the crown prince.  Rickard Stark and the other fathers of those arrested were called to King's Landing to answer for their sons.  When there, Brandon, Lord Rickard, and most of the other Northmen were executed and tortured.  Next, Aerys demanded that Lord Jon Arryn send him the heads of Robert Baratheon, Lyanna's betrothed, and Eddard Stark, both of whom were now lords.  Rather than kill his two wards, Jon Arryn raised his banners in revolt -- an act considered to be the true start of the war known as Robert's Rebellion.

A serious question remains -- if Ned and Robert knew early on that Lyanna was in the Tower of Joy, why didn't they try to rescue her?  Clearly Brandon had believed that Rhaegar had taken Lyanna to King's Landing, a mistake that cost him his life.  It could be that Lyanna wasn't at the tower at the start of the war, but only arrived there near the end of the war.  If so, how did Ned learn that information?

I'm making a few assumptions here.  First, if the Starks knew were Lyanna was near the start of the war, then why did he go north from the Eyrie via the Fingers, Sisterton, and White Harbor, rather than south, toward Dorne?  Second, had Robert known her location at the start of the war, the pathway his army took doesn't make a lot of sense -- while tactical considerations could have forced him to march north to Stony Sept, when he fought his battles at Summerhall and Ashford early in the war, he was as close to the Tower of Joy as he ever would be during the war.  Wouldn't it make sense to try to reach the Tower of Joy if the Starks and Baratheons knew Lyanna was there?

So we're forced to conclude that Ned didn't know where Lyanna was until later in the war.

At the Tower of Joy, the seven Northmen clashed with three Kingsguard and killed them.  His memories of that battle are intermingled with cries of his sister Lyanna crying out his name:  "As they came together in a rush of steel and shadow, he could hear Lyanna screaming.  'Eddard!" she called."

From these memories, it would seem that the band of Northmen that road into the red mountains of Dorne had known Lyanna's location when they rode south from Storm's End.  But how did they learn? 

One clue might come from another of Ned's memories.  "Martyn Cassel had perished with the rest.  Ned had pulled the tower down afterward, and used its bloody stones to build eight cairns upon the ridge.  It was said that Rhaegar had names that place the tower of joy, but for Ned it was a bitter memory.  They had been seven against three, yet only two had lived to ride away; Eddard Stark himself and the little crannogman, Howland Reed."

As to the number of cairns, the math makes sense. We know that Ned had returned Lyanna's body to Winterfell, as Robert and he visited it at the beginning of AGOT.  Other than that:

    (7 Northmen - 2 survivors) + (3 Kingsguard) + (1 Lyanna) = 8 bodies to bury + 1 Lyanna.

What doesn't make sense is that two people alone could pull down a tower in which Rhaegar had hidden Lyanna for safety, and which the Kingsguard were assigned to guard.  How do two people with horses destroy a stone structure by themselves?

What was the Tower of Joy?  We can get some insight by considering what its military and geopolitical function might have been.  Examining the map of the South in GRRM's novels, the "Tower of Joy" stood near the north end of the Prince's Path, one of three "castles" along that road.  The other two are Kingsgrave and Skyreach.  The first of these is the house of House Manwoody.  Skyreach the ancient home of House Fowler, called the Wardens of the Prince's Pass.  It would appear that the Tower of Joy was built as a guard tower to defend the pass against military invaders from the north.  Rhaegar may have named the tower, but it's unlikely that he built it.  It probably dates to a time before Dorne submitted to Targaryen rule (~187 AC), or even to the time before the Rhoynar arrived in Dorne, when the Fowlers were kings in their own right.

If the tower had stood for at least a century, likely under the jurisdiction of the Fowlers, and was able to securely house a pregnant woman for several months, it is exceedingly unlikely that two rebel lords would be able to pull the tower down for both physical and military reasons.

So how had Ned "pulled the tower down?"

There's an often-overlooked memory of Eddard's that may hold a clue. Eddard's first chapter in A Game of Thrones, we read, "They had found him still holding her [Lyanna's] body, silent with grief.  The little crannogman, Howland Reed, had taken her hand from his." 

While Ned and Howland Reed were the only survivors of the battle, there was at least one more person present to find Ned holding his sister's body.  Who could that person be?  Well, the first thing to consider is what it would take to knock down a fortified tower.  I propose that it would take at least a dozen men with horses and the right tools.  It would take someone with access to manpower and money who could operate openly along the Prince's Pass and destroy a tower that may have stood there for centuries.

In that House Fowler is charged with guarding the Prince's Pass, a strong possibility is that the "third person" who came upon Ned holding Lyanna's body was a Martell, to whom the Fowlers were bannermen.

Why would a Martell help Ned Stark, after he had helped lead the army that opposed the Royalist forces in which Dorne had taken part?  To answer that question, we need to look at the events that led up to the battle at the Tower of Joy.

Following his escape from the Vale of Arryn, Ned Stark went north and called his banners.  He marched his armies down to the Riverlands over a period of about four or five months.  In Riverrun, the Stark, Tully, and Arryn forces assembled following the agreement that Ned and Jon would marry Catelyn and Lysa.  Ned's first battle came in the Battle of the Bells at Stony Sept, where he defeated Royalist forces under Jon Connington.  After that, the Rebels marched back to Riverrun, where Ned remained for a fortnight following his marriage to Catelyn.

It was the next battle of the war, The Battle of the Trident, when Ned would first cross swords with the forces of Dorne, who had marched up the Kingsroad and joined Royalist forces at King's Landing.  In that battle, we know that the leader of the Dornish forces, Prince Lewyn Martell of the Kingsguard died at the hands of Ser Lyn Corbray wielding the Valyrian Steel blade, Lady Forlorn.  After killing Rhaegar, Robert was injured, leaving Ned to lead the vanguard of Robert's army to King's Landing, trying to reach it before the Lannister army arrived.

Knowing what we do of Ned Stark, doesn't it seem possible that he tried to learn from Rhaegar where Lyanna was?  We know that Robert's final hammer blow "stove" in the chest of Rhaegar, but did Rhaegar die immediately?  One possibility is that Rhaegar lived long enough to tell Ned where Lyanna was.  If so, wouldn't Ned have made that priority number one?  Wouldn't Robert demand his forces to make their way to Dorne to rescue her?  Wouldn't someone have sent a raven to friendly families in the South.. such as the Daynes?  But the odds are very low that Eddard would have heard it from Rhaegar.

Following the death of Rhaegar, the Royal forces broke and fled back to King's Landing.  Who might have been there?  While Lewyn Martell commanded the Dornish forces leaving King's Landing, he had not been at the head of the column that marched north from Dorne.  Who might be able to command Dornish troops gathered from the variety of Dornish nobles?  Not the ruler, Prince Doran... but his trusted brother, Oberyn.

Given the fate of Elia and her children, it seems unlikely that any of the Dornish forces were present in King's Landing and almost impossible that any Martells had entered the city, especially if Oberyn was among the survivors after the Trident.  So, I conclude from that logic that Oberyn Martell led the Dornish forces south from the Ruby Ford, and were not able to enter King's Landing.

We don't know a great deal about the fate of the retreating Dornish army, but we can conclude that the few of them reentered King's Landing.  Had the Dornish forces reached King's Landing before the Lannisters, Dornish leaders would likely have been present for the eventual sack of the city.  Any such leader, particularly Oberyn, would have sooner died than allowed harm to come to Elia and her children.  So it seems impossible for the Dornish army to have re-entered King's Landing.  So they likely moved south, back toward Dorne.

There are two points at which Ned Stark and Oberyn Martell might have met during the war.  First:  on the battlefield during or after the Battle of the Trident, it's possible that Oberyn saw Ned as a noble man who deserved to know where his sister was and got him a message -- maybe they even crossed swords (just to speculate).

Another time when Oberyn could have met with Ned was after the Sack of King's Landing, when Ned's force moving south (i.e., to lift the siege of Storm's End) would possibly run into the remainder of the Dornish troops heading back south.  Given the possibility of conflict between the troops, it would be smart of Ned to offer the Dornish army a guarantee of safe conduct, and offer a meeting.  From the House Martell motto, there is no way that Dornish forces would ever have surrendered.  It could also have been a gesture of respect to Ned Stark for Oberyn to personally meet with him and tell him where his sister really was.

One likely scenario for this happening would be that in which Dornish forces joined the remaining Royalist forces besieging Storm's End.  Mace Tyrell apparently already knew of the fall of King's Landing.  It's possible Oberyn was there to tell him, and then had the opportunity to talk with Ned.

Oberyn meeting with Ned would also clear up a remaining question:  how did the Martells learn the truth of how Elia and her children died?  The odds that King Robert told the Martells about the Lannister forces killing Elia and her children are extremely low, while the general practice of politicians in King's Landing is to provide a pretextual story to hide the truth of what happens.  However, Ned having left King's Landing immediately after his conflict with Robert over the murders meant that it was likely he would share the fate of Elia and her children with her family.

Assuming that Oberyn told Ned about the Tower of Joy and both being aware of how Robert treats Targaryen children, Oberyn and Ned would have joint motivation to destroy the tower and hide evidence of Lyanna's relationship with Rhaegar.  As Oberyn cared deeply for his own children at a later date and Ned was a man of deep honor, it is totally within the character of both to work together to protect baby Jon.  Oberyn's Martell family connections and their influence over their bannermen would provide the resources needed to make a structure hundreds of years old disappear.

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