Estuaries of the Seven Kingdoms, Part 3: The Life of Ashara Dayne

 

[Egon Schiele, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons]

Read Part 1 and Part 2 first!!!

The Life of Ashara Dayne 

I reconstructed the biography of Ashara Dayne based on the evidence in the novels, some supplemental information from The World of Ice and Fire, and the kind of geographic evidence about mountain estuaries described above.  

 Growing up at Starfall

As a Dayne, Ashara's childhood home would be Starfall, ancient seat of her family.  We don't know anything about her parents, but we do know some things about her brothers and her sister.

 Ashara was a girl with two brothers.  The oldest one became father to Edric Dayne and the other was Arthur Dayne -- so the Sword of the Morning was a second son, never to inherit the seat of his family.  Becoming a member of the Kingsguard would not be a typical way for the oldest sons of nobles (note the exception of the Lannisters, in which Tywin was angry), so it seems that Edric's father was the oldest son of his parents.  Catelyn's description of Ashara as the "beautiful young sister" implies that Ashara was younger than Arthur.

 Ashara also had a sister named Allyria Dayne, the aunt of Edric Dayne.  As an adult, she was betrothed to Beric Dondarrion, who took Edric as his squire.  It was Allyria who shared Ashara's story with Edric, rather than his own parents.

 The location of Starfall tells us that the Daynes were likely to have experience walking and hiking through mountains, potentially in rock climbing as well.  They also are likely to have the water-related skills such as swimming, fishing, boating, and even cliff diving.  Depending on the height of the Red Mountains near Starfall, the Daynes may also have experience with sledding in the snow, downhill skiing, or other alpine activities.

 In that Starfall itself is accessible to the mainland only via bridge as the Torentine River is too turbulent for boat use near the castle, the Daynes are unlikely to make direct use of the river other than as a defensive barrier.  Most water uses would likely be focused on the Summer Sea or upstream along the Torentine.

 

Service at Court

Both Barristan's comment that she was not long at court when she visisted Harrenhal and Catelyn describing her as the "beautiful young sister" when Ned visited her at Starfall suggests that Ashara was probably a teenager aged 16 or older when she came into Elia's service as a lady-in-waiting.

As Rhaegar was the Prince of Dragonstone, it's likely that Ashara resided there, instead of at King's Landing.    According to The World of Ice and Fire, Aerys II did not attend his son's marriage to Elia Martell, fearing assasination.  With increasing strain on the relationship with Aerys, Rhaegar and Elia took up residence on Dragonstone, where their first child, Rhaenys, was born.

Traveling to Harrenhal from Dragonstone would require at least part of the journey to be via boat.  It's not clear whether a ship leaving the island would make for the nearest port (Duskendale) or a port closer to Harrenhal, such as Maidenpool near the mouth of the Trident.

It's not at all clear that Ashara Dayne would have ever met King Aerys II and Queen Rhaella.  Following Aerys' insulting comment that the baby Rhaenys "smells Dornish," it's unlikely that Elia and Rhaegar would bring their later son Aegon to court as well.  As such, it's likely (given her newness at court at the time of Harrenhal, according to Ser Barristan) that Ashara began her service to Elia on Dragonstone, and did not visit the Red Keep prior to the Harrenhal tourney.

 

The Tourney at Harrenhal

Looking at the descriptions of the Harrenhal tourney, we can quantify some of the schedule.  

We know that at the opening ceremony of the joust tournament, Aerys II raised Jaime Lannister to the Kingsguard, whom he sent to King's Landing shortly thereafter (documented in World of Ice and Fire).  When the Knight of the Laughing Tree (KOTL)won several jousts, Aerys II was outraged, believing the mystery knight to be Jaime Lannister in a mocking suit of armor.  As such, he ordered his kingsguard to defeat the mystery knight the next day, but when morning came, the KOTL had disappeared.  Only after the knight's disappearance did Aerys order "his men," including Rhaegar, to search for the Knight of the Laughing Tree.  We also know that Rhaegar and the Kingsguard competed in the joust, winning in the end.  As such, it's likely that the search for the Knight of the Laughing Tree didn't commence until after the third day of the joust competition.

So, we know that the order of these events must be as follows

• Day N         Howland Reed bullied by squires, invited to opening feast that evening.
• Day N+a     Jaime raised to Kingsguard at joust opening ceremony
• Day N+a+b    KOTL appears in lists, and defeats three knights
• Day N+a+b+c    KOTL found missing; Aerys orders search after jousting ends for day

 By contrast, we know that Howland Reed found the tourney, was bullied by three squires and rescued by Lyanna Stark, who asked the crannogman to attend the opening feast of the tourney.  From Meera Reed's storytelling to Bran, we learn that "a maid with laughing purple eyes" (Ashara) danced with "a white sword" (member of the Kingsguard), "a red snake" (Oberyn Martell), "the lord of griffins" (Jon Connington), and "the quiet wolf" (Eddard Stark).  At that same feast, the northerners recognize the squires who had bullied Howland Reed earlier that day.  The Starks urge Howland to compete in the tourney, but crannogmen lack knowledge of jousting.  So we know that Ashara first met Ned Stark, Lyanna Stark, and the other northerners on "Day N."

We also learn from the Reeds story that the porcupine knight, pitchfork knight, and knight of the two towers won places among the chapmpions in the first two days of the tournament (Day N+a and Day N+a+b).  Only late in the second day of the jousting does the KOTL appear and beat them (Day N+a+b). 

The jousting took place over five days, according to the Reed account.  As such, the jousting days must have happened on Day N+a, Day N+a+b, Day N+a+b+c, Day N+a+b+c+d, and Day Day N+a+b+c+d+e.

In Ser Barristan's memory, he wonders if Ashara would have "looked to me instead of Stark."  We know that Barristan lost the final tilt against Rhaegar, so at least in his eyes, Ashara "looking to" Stark must have happened after the end of the jousting.  The "look to" Stark must have occurred on or after Day N+a+b+c+d+e, the fifth and final day of jousting and sixth day of the overall tourney. 

Putting all this information together, the sequence of events at the tourney can be ordered like this:

• Order 1:  Howland Reed finds Harrenhal tourney
• Order 2:  Squires bully Howland Reed, and Lyanna Stark intervenes.
• Order 3:  Opening feast, where Howland and Lyanna recognize squires and Ashara dances with several men. (night before joust begins)
• Order 4:  Jaime Lannister elevated to Kingsguard. (1st day of joust)
• Order 5:  Jaime Lannister ordered to King's Landing.
• Order 6:  Knights of House Haigh, Blount, and Frey score wins at the tourney
• Order 7:  Knight of Laughing Tree defeats knights of Haigh, Blount, and Frey (2nd day of joust)
• Order 8:  Aerys orders his men to defeat the KOTL
• Order 9:  KOTL found missing during next day of jousting (3rd day of joust)
• Order 10:  After jousting complete on 3rd day of joust, Aerys orders his men and Rhaegar to search for KOTL. (3rd day of joust)
• Order 11:  Fourth day of joust
• Order 12:  Fifth and final day of joust.  Rhaegar defeats Ser Barristan in final tilt, and crowns Lyanna queen of love and beauty.
• Order 13:  Ashara "turns to" Stark.

We also know, sometime prior to Ashara "looking" to Stark, that she was "dishonored by a man," though we don't know exactly when.  We can be fairly certain that this occurred after the day of the opening feast, when Ned Stark was too shy to introduce himself to Ashara.

From this order of events, we know that Ashara turned to Stark sometime after the end of the final joust.  As Ned Stark was present to witness "when all the smiles died" and Rhaegar granting the crown of blue roses to Lyanna, it is likely Ashara "looked to" Stark only after this event happened.

From Ser Barristan's memory, we can also be fairly sure that, at least at first, Ashara "looking to" Stark was not inherently romantic.  Selmy plainly acknowledges that his vows prevented him from having any relationship with Ashara Dayne.  Yet if she could still "look to" him instead of Stark, it wasn't for a romantic reason.  Similarly, while she may have had some romantic interest in Ned Stark from the opening tourney, her reasoning for "looking to" Stark after the joust was over also wasn't for a romantic reason.

It seems likely that Ashara "looking to" Stark occurred as a result of her being "dishonored" by a man who was neither Barristan Selmy nor Eddard Stark.

I will note the possibility that the "look to" Stark may have been to any of the Stark children or to "House Stark" in general.  However, such a possibility does not rule out Eddard being aware of her "look."

What Really Happened to Ashara Dayne at Harrenhal

It's possible that we lack sufficient evidence to say exactly how Ashara was "dishonored."  However, I think there is ample circumstantial evidence to conclude that Mad King Aerys raped Ashara on the 3rd day of the joust.

First, Ser Barristan's passive voice in describing her being "dishonored by a man" is in keeping with his vow to protect the King no matter what and not judge him.  We read in Jaime Lannister's chapters that the Kingsguard allowed Aerys to do anything he pleased and avoided any judgment of his actions.  Lord Commander Gerold Hightower reminded Jaime that he had sword a vow to guard the king, not to judge him (ACOK, Catelyn VII).  Upon hearing Aerys brutally raping Queen Rhaella, in response to Jaime asking if they weren't also sworn to protect the queen, Ser Jonothor Darry responded, "but not from him." (AFFC, Jaime II)  When asking Rhaegar in King's Landing to allow him to fight with him instead of staying in King's Landing, Jaime was told by Ser Jonothor Darry that when he accepted the cloak, he vowed to obey.  In his dream while sleeping on a weirwood stump, Jaime sees other members of Aerys' Kingsguard (Oswell Whent, Jon Darry, Lewyn Martell, Gerold Hightower, Arthur Dayne) and Rhaegar Targaryen condemning him for not following his vow and protecting the king and Elia's children (whether a real prophetic dream or not, it reflects both the conflict in Jaime and the onus of the Kingsguard:  obedience even in the face of royal and family evil).  As a long-standing member of the Kingsguard with an intense commitment to his vows, Barristan Selmy could cope with the villainy of the king he swore to protect and not judge by describing Aery's actions at Harrenhal, including the rape of Ashara Dayne, as those of "a man," not someone he helped stay in power.

Second, Aerys had opportunity to commit the crime.  When he sent the Kingsguard and Rhaegar to search for the KOTL, after having sent Rhaella and Viserys to King's Landing with Jaime, Aerys was left without close oversight.  While Aerys supposedly lost interest in all other women besides Rhaella following his praying and fasting for repentance after blaming the death of his son Jaehaerys on his mistress, he had no one but himself to enforce that commitment after sending his men and Rhaegar away.  

Third, Ashara Dayne had features that reminded him of Old Valyria.  The "dancing purple eyes" described by several people looked Valyrian, though George R.R. Martin has clearly stated that the Daynes are not Valyrian.  Aerys would be extremely attracted to Ashara Dayne, particularly if he saw her spending lots of time on the dance floor with other men on the night of the opening feast.

Fourth, Aerys had the means to force himself on Ashara.  As King, he could command a new-to-court lady-in-waiting to attend him.  He had leverage on her, with her brother being one of the Kingsguard subject to his whims.  She could not accuse him of any such crime without him denying it and subject her to a charge of treason.  With Rhaegar and his Kingsguard gone, Aerys was free of curious eyes to do what he wished.

Fifth, Aerys showed contempt for Elia Martell and her children, saying that Rhaenys "smelled Dornish."  Attacking one of her ladies-in-waiting would be a way to threaten her as well.

Aerys being the man who dishonored Ashara makes Stark a good choice for her to turn for help.  The Wardens of the North were distant from court politics, and possibly could offer her protection from the predations of Aerys and the consequences of a public airing of what had happened.

Return to Starfall

We're not told how or when she got there, but at the end of Robert's Rebellion, Ashara Dayne was in her family home at Harrenhal.  Being there implies that she left Elia's service as a lady-in-waiting.

In tracing the potential pathways by which Ashara traveled from Harrenhal to Starfall, let's look at people with whom we know she had close enough contact to help.  

• First, there is her brother, Ser Arthur Dayne, but he was a sword brother of the Kingsguard; according to The World of Ice and Fire, he was with Rhaegar when he absconded with Lyanna Stark -- hardly a job he'd want his sister around for.  
• Second, there is Princess Elia Martell and the other members of her court.  Elia could offer comfort and support, but probably was herself limited to reaching out for help to members of her family unencumbered by pregnancy and motherhood.  That leads us to the third candidate...
• Oberyn Martell, brother of Elia, uncle to her children, and prince of the family to whom the Daynes were bannermen.  He offers an interesting possibility, and we can locate him in Dorne at the end of Robert's Rebellion.  It would be possible for her to escort her back to Dorne if he knew she was in trouble, but we don't have any evidence that he was part of her life between Harrenhal and the end of the war.  More on Prince Oberyn later and in other posts... 
• We also know that at the tourney's opening feast, she danced with Jon Connington, a friend of Prince Rhaegar.  While we don't know of his actions immediately following Harrenhal, we do know that he was made Hand of the King after Aerys dismissed Owen Merryweather following Robert's victories in the Stormlands.  We have no evidence about his location prior to becoming Hand.
• Lastly, she danced with Ned Stark at the opening feast.  From Ser Barristan, we know she "looked to" Stark after being dishonored.  Also, there are rumors about Ned and Ashara (1) being in love, (2) conceiving a baby together, and (3) his stealing a baby from her.  Aside from those perceptions and rumors, there are compelling other reasons to think Eddard Stark helped Ashara get home to Starfall.  

What other reasons might there be to believe that Ned helped Ashara return to Starfall?  Well, shortly after the beginning of Robert's Rebellion, we have testimony from Lord Borrell that Ned appeared at Sisterton with a "fisherman's daughter" whom he left with a "baby in her belly" that she named Jon Snow and a bag of silver.  If Ashara became pregnant as a result of Aerys raping her, she would probably be far enough along to be notably pregnant around that time.

For Ashara to be the "fisherman's daughter" would require Ned and Ashara to have left the Eyrie together.  From the stories of Robert's Rebellion, we know that Ned traveled from the Arryn castle across the Mountains of the Moon to the Fingers, where he found a fisherman's boat to carry him to White Harbor.  While Ned is a rugged guy and was fostered at the Eyrie, Ashara grew up in the Red Mountains of Dorne and would be able to navigate the mountain journey.  

Evidence for the assertion that Ashara Dayne would know how to navigate mountains is, granted, circumstantial. But we have evidence of another character growing up near mountains and water than was skilled in climbing:  Brienne of Tarth.  As I noted in Part 1, she told Jaime that she learned to boat almost before she learned to walk, growing up on an island.  Tarth is also a mountainous island, and we see Brienne quickly reacting to the situation of being out-manned by the Tully river galley pursuing her, Jaime, and Ser Cleos Frey, after Catelyn sent them to King's Landing in A Storm of Swords:

The skiff rocked.  He heard a soft splash, and when he glanced around, Brienne was gone.  A moment later, he spied her again, pulling herself from the water at the base of the bluff.  She waded through a shallow pool, scrambled over some rocks, and began to climb.

[...]

 Ser Cleos raised a shout.  When Jaime looked up, Brienne was lumbering along the clifftop well ahead of them, having cut across a finger of land while they were following the bend in the river.  She threw herself off the rock, and looked almost graceful as she folded into a dive. 

While I grant that Brienne is unique among women in the story for her strength and martial agility, the physical familiarity of climbing steep river banks can reasonably thought to have its origins in growing up on the mountainous island of Tarth.  As such, it's also reasonable to assume that Ashara Dayne knew how to navigate mountains, having grown up in the Red Mountains.  

[https://awoiaf.westeros.org/images/2/2d/The_Vale.jpg]

The closest possible river port to the Eyrie within the fingers is Heart's Home, stronghold of House Corbray.  Assuming Ned would seek the closest possible port, Heart's Home make sense, provided he could count on help from its Lord, the father of Lyonel and Lyn Corbray.  While we know Lyn Corbray fought with Marq Grafton at Gulltown against Robert,  we learn from Catelyn that Eddard Stark's grandfather had a sister who married a Royce and had a daughter who married a Corbray (ASOS, Catelyn V), making that person a second cousin, once removed AND third cousin of Ned.  We also know that then-Lord Corbray at eventually fought for Robert Baratheon at the Battle of the Trident, and it was there that his second son Lyn seized Lady Forlorn and killed Lewyn Martell.  Were Ned and Ashara to arrive at Heart's Home appealing for help getting to White Harbor, Ned could appeal first to his familiarity with the bannermen of his foster father, Jon Arryn, as well as the (admittedly obscure) family ties between the Starks and the Corbrays.  

Heart's Home sits on the northern shore of the river flowing out of the Mountains of the Moon into the Narrow Sea.  A river flowing into a sea surrounded by mountains would not at all be unfamiliar to Ashara Dayne, who grew up on an island within the Torentine River flowing into the Summer Sea.  Assuming that her parents taught her water safety and how to navigate a boat, Ashara would be well-suited to steer Ned to White Harbor.  

Examining this map of terrain below, clipped from one on the Atlas of Ice and Fire, it's possible to see how similar are the surroundings of the Torentine and the unnamed river in the Vale flowing out of the Mountains of the Moon.  Heart's Home (or the other river strongholds) and Starfall (and the other strongholds along the Torentine) are similarly situated, albeit in different climate regions.

 

[Adapted from https://atlasoficeandfireblog.wordpress.com/category/geography/]

When they were hit by a storm and blown off course to Sisterton, it would raise eyebrows if the new lord of Winterfell were to accompany a visibly-pregnant young woman -- and we hear of it in Lord Borrell's story to Davos (ADWD, Davos I).  A believable cover story would be that she was simply the daughter of the fisherman who had fallen overboard in the storm -- not a single woman traveling with the noble Lord of Winterfell.  So the "fisherman's daughter" cover story was born.

At this point, Ned had to get to Winterfell and call his banners.  Ashara was pregnant, having been dishonored and raped at Harrenhal.  In what had to be an excruciating decision, Ned gave the "fisherman's daughter" a bag of silver, with which she could buy passage down the Narrow Sea back to Dorne.  As shown in the map below, the Sisters are along one of the major trade routes in Westeros, as well as between Westeros and the rest of the world.

[Attribution:  https://atlasoficeandfireblog.files.wordpress.com/2018/05/westeros-trade-routes-big.png]

Traveling from Sisterton, the closest major port not engulfed in Robert's Rebellion was Braavos.  Ships from Essos routinely stop at the Sisters, so finding passage there would not be difficult provided she had ample money.  Once in Braavos, she could seek refuge in her faith, that of the Seven -- at the Sept-Beyond-the-Sea, where there might be help in reaching Starfall.  One convenient possibility is that she disguised herself as a septa there and folded in among the other members of the sept while awaiting passage on a boat back to Dorne.

[Attribution:  https://atlasoficeandfireblog.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/the-world-of-ice-and-fire-with-latitude.png]

From Braavos, passage back to Dorne would not be difficult to find.  Dorne was not a major theater in the war, and Ned had provided Ashara with ample silver to purchase travel.

There is one other possible pathway for Ashara Dayne to reach Starfall from Braavos.  Shortly after the fall of Dragonstone, Ser Willem Darry signed a marriage pact with Oberyn Martell for Viserys and Arianne at the Sealord's Palace in Braavos.  While there's no evidence Oberyn knew of Ashara's presence in Braavos, if she was there, but if so, he could also help escort her back to Starfall.

This theory ties together many of the loose ends around Ned Stark and Ashara Dayne.  It explains why Ned and Ashara were perceived to be in love.  It explains who the fisherman's daughter is.  It explains why the lord of House Dayne named his son and heir Edric and called him by the nickname Ned -- honoring the man who helped his sister, not aiding someone who had dishonored himself and her at a tourney one night.

So far, we've brought the story of Ashara Dayne up to time of the characters in the books of A Song of Ice and Fire.  Next, I will propose my theory of where she is "now" (as of the end of A Dance with Dragons and preview chapters of The Winds of Winter).  Stay tuned for Part 4! 

Prince Doran is smarter than the ASOIAF fandom

[User:Gokul Jadhav, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons]

 

With the death of Quentyn after his rejection by Danaerys in Mereen and the seemingly-instant affection for Aegon "Young Griff" Targaryen, who most people believe to be a fake, there are widepsread predictions by some of the most brilliant thinkers online that the Martells are going down.  The thought is that Doran is so attached to vengeance, just like the Sand Snakes, that he will hitch his horse (via marriage) to any Targaryen able to help his family get back into power.

There is every reason to expect this behavior of Doran.  We learn of a secret marriage pact negotiated between Oberyn Martell and Willem Dary for the marriage of Viserys and Arianne Martell.  We see how Tyrion arranged the betrothal of his niece Myrcella and Doran's son Trystane.  We read how Arianne is sent by Doran to check out young Aegon after Jon Connington sent a letter claiming that Elia's son is actually alive and asking for Dorne's help.

But there's more to the Martells than we have been able to see.

I want to back up and think fundamentally what is driving Dorne.  Is it emotion -- a thirst for vengeance above all?  Or does Doran act like a true statesman, seeking to forward the interests of Dorne, as the international relations theory called realism would suggest?  In the modern era, we learn how even "mad" dictators like the North Korean Kim family still act like rational actors when we look at them from the perspective of geopolitics.  Why wouldn't we apply the same lens to Dorne?

I want to grant that Doran is a fictional character, and that George R.R. Martin may not have been thinking as I suspect he did when he wrote the books.  Doran could be someone beset with the thirst for vengeance.  Still, I'm reminded of the question Martin asked about what Aragon's tax policy was.  In other words, he acknowledges that states' decisions are based more than the emotional impulses of their rulers, but generally on some rational basis.

So what would Dorne decide to do if it was rational?

Let's think about the history of Dorne.  The Martells' words "Unbowed, Unbent, Unbroken" mean that they were never conquered, they never surrendered, and they never were smashed in battle.  Aside from the history in Fire and Blood to the contrary, these words are mostly true.  And those exceptions are important in framing what Dorne wants now.  Aegon the Conqueror was never able to overcome it, and at Hellholt, his sister Rhaenes Targaryen and her dragon Meraxes fell from the sky after a scorpion bolt hit the beast in the eye.  Armies from the Reach met their demise in marching across the red sands of Dorne.  It was only after Prince Maron Martell was married to Danaerys Targaryen in 187 AC that a Dornish prince "bent the knee." 

Geopolitically speaking, for much of the post-Conquest history, Dorne has acted much as Russia did within European politics.  Relying on a large swath of land between other kingdoms and inhospitable weather, Dorne, like Russia, made itself the graveyard of conquerors.  In fact, there are so many similarities between Dorne and Russia in their response to invasion (i.e., abandonment of cities and fortresses, harrying attacks on invading armies) that it's possible GRRM partly based Dorne on Imperial Russia.  Russia's response to Napoleon's invasion in 1812 provides an amazing real-world parallel to these strategies employed by Dorne during Aegon's conquest.  [As an aside, the "Mossovy" in Essos is remarkably similar to the medieval antecedent of the Russian state:  Muscovy -- Moscow.]

[Vissarion, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons]

With a degree of security unique in Westeros, Dorne remains a kingdom apart.  The Martells are difficult to remove from power, and Dornish land is nigh-impossible for foreign forces to occupy.  Considering this position of geopolitical strength, what would cause any Dornish leader to sacrifice this security by drawing it into a war for the Iron Throne?

Most of the fandom and the (brilliant) online commentariat seem to think that Doran Martell is locked into the same approach to maintaining power that Prince Maron Martell employed about 120 years ago:  marrying a Targaryen.  However, that's not the only path forward for Dorne.

It's important to keep in mind that the secret wedding pact signed by Oberyn Martell with Willem Darry took place after Targaryen rule had ended in Westeros.  The secret wedding pact was far from a trump card in the game of thrones -- more of a way to diversify Dorne's investments.  Note that it was only after "our" Danaerys had conquered Meereen that Doran sent Quentyn to court her.  It was only after receiving a letter from Jon Connington that Doran sent Arianne to investigate Aegon/Young Griff in the Stormlands.

At the end of Robert's Rebellion, how likely was it that Viserys would be able to survive long enough to make a claim on the Iron Throne?  It seems like an extremely risky bet for Doran to put all his political chips on the marriage pact.  While later, Doran tries to use the pact to join his family with Danaerys, at the end of Robert's Rebellion, that wasn't known to him.

We do know from Tywin Lannister that at the end of Robert's Rebellion, Prince Oberyn Martell "tried to raise Dorne for Viserys."  Yet somehow, that uprising never happened... likely because Doran prevented it.  

So, if Doran is a master player of the game of thrones, what other bets might he have placed at the end of Robert's Rebellion?

I've got one theory... please stay tuned!